Well, that was an informative lecture on the future of Afghanistan. I'm guessing that most people in the audience probably didn't like what they heard. Here's the quick recap from my notes from former US Ambassador to Afghanistan and retired Army Lieutenant General Karl Eikenberry's assessment of the key challenges and risks ahead.
4 main challenges:
1) Pakistan. Biggest challenge. Sanctuary for Taliban due to geo-political issues. If Afghanistan fails in the near future, they will need to be friends with their neighbors. This includes Pakistan, India, Iran, Russia, and China. The Taliban is the only hope that Afghanistan has for hedging their bets and keeping these wolves at bay. The tribalism of the Pashtun also plays a critical role in shaping alliances. Pakistan's growing tactical nuclear weapons program makes it an even bigger threat.
2) Cost of ANA. The Afghan National Army costs more that $4.4billion annually. Afghanistan in total brings in less than $2billion annually, so NATO, the US, etc are covering the costs. But if our economy continues to struggle and we cut aid, there is a real fear that the nation's military will collapse. The ANA is institutionally unstable and cannot self-sustain. They are operating under a complex military framework that resembles ours. Something that they appear unable to maintain on their own.
3) Political issues. Afghanistan will face major issues in the upcoming election. Will Karzai give up his seat willingly? Will free and fair democratic elections take place? With massive corruption and a weak democratic system that is relatively untested, much hangs in the balance. They must have diverse political parties and fair elections, but this will prove almost impossible (my words not his). Additionally, the major funding that the ANA is receiving has placed them in a position of power which resembles a military security state. Moreover, most of the military leaders are former militia leaders. There is a possibility for disintegration from within if oversight is pulled away.
5) Economics. Afghanistan spends over $8billion per year and beings in only $2billion. What will happen when support begins to dwindle? Will their systems and infrastructure survive? If not, will we continue to step in?
Main upsides:
Major improvements in education, health care, and living conditions since 2002. Many Afghanis had been brutalized and traumatized by oppressive local leaders (Still seems to be the case to me...). Now, almost 80% have access to level 3 medical care. Elementary and university enrollment are up dramatically, providing hope for future generations.
Future of US involvement:
1) We must ensure preparedness as threats from neighbors continue to create instability in the region. Pakistan, Iran, Syria, etc. (I know most of you are not going to like that part). Basically, Afghanistan is our new Kuwait is what I take away from this.
2) We must keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Afghanistan is an essential part of this.
3) Regional stability relies largely on the outcome of events in Afghanistan. Pakistan's growing tactical nuclear arsenal, Instability throughout the Middle East, and threats from extremist groups pose major obstacles for future developments in this entire region.
4) Afghanistan needs to improve national income. Trade agreements, development of resources, etc are huge factors in developing economic, political, and geographical stability.
Parting shots:
4 main challenges:
1) Pakistan. Biggest challenge. Sanctuary for Taliban due to geo-political issues. If Afghanistan fails in the near future, they will need to be friends with their neighbors. This includes Pakistan, India, Iran, Russia, and China. The Taliban is the only hope that Afghanistan has for hedging their bets and keeping these wolves at bay. The tribalism of the Pashtun also plays a critical role in shaping alliances. Pakistan's growing tactical nuclear weapons program makes it an even bigger threat.
2) Cost of ANA. The Afghan National Army costs more that $4.4billion annually. Afghanistan in total brings in less than $2billion annually, so NATO, the US, etc are covering the costs. But if our economy continues to struggle and we cut aid, there is a real fear that the nation's military will collapse. The ANA is institutionally unstable and cannot self-sustain. They are operating under a complex military framework that resembles ours. Something that they appear unable to maintain on their own.
3) Political issues. Afghanistan will face major issues in the upcoming election. Will Karzai give up his seat willingly? Will free and fair democratic elections take place? With massive corruption and a weak democratic system that is relatively untested, much hangs in the balance. They must have diverse political parties and fair elections, but this will prove almost impossible (my words not his). Additionally, the major funding that the ANA is receiving has placed them in a position of power which resembles a military security state. Moreover, most of the military leaders are former militia leaders. There is a possibility for disintegration from within if oversight is pulled away.
5) Economics. Afghanistan spends over $8billion per year and beings in only $2billion. What will happen when support begins to dwindle? Will their systems and infrastructure survive? If not, will we continue to step in?
Main upsides:
Major improvements in education, health care, and living conditions since 2002. Many Afghanis had been brutalized and traumatized by oppressive local leaders (Still seems to be the case to me...). Now, almost 80% have access to level 3 medical care. Elementary and university enrollment are up dramatically, providing hope for future generations.
Future of US involvement:
1) We must ensure preparedness as threats from neighbors continue to create instability in the region. Pakistan, Iran, Syria, etc. (I know most of you are not going to like that part). Basically, Afghanistan is our new Kuwait is what I take away from this.
2) We must keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Afghanistan is an essential part of this.
3) Regional stability relies largely on the outcome of events in Afghanistan. Pakistan's growing tactical nuclear arsenal, Instability throughout the Middle East, and threats from extremist groups pose major obstacles for future developments in this entire region.
4) Afghanistan needs to improve national income. Trade agreements, development of resources, etc are huge factors in developing economic, political, and geographical stability.
Parting shots:
Needless to say, it seems that we will not be completely pulling out of Afghanistan anytime soon. Even reducing troops from 150k to 10k poses major problems as this is not enough assertive force to provide stability if things began to crumble. It seems that at least from Lt. Gen Eikenberry's position, nuclear weapons and terrorism are a major reason for our continuing presence. Additionally, he seems to be no more confident about the future of Afghanistan as a stand-alone government than I am. I hope it works. I have my fingers and toes crossed. But only time will tell what happens as we begin to draw down and eventually reduce funding and support.
Your comments... fire away.
http://igs.berkeley.edu/events/the-future-of-afghanistan-and-us-strategy-in-central-and-south-asia
— at UC Berkeley.
Your comments... fire away.
http://igs.berkeley.edu/events/the-future-of-afghanistan-and-us-strategy-in-central-and-south-asia
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